edd at debian.org
Sun Dec 31 20:12:04 CET 2000
"Jason" == Jason Turner <jasont at indigoindustrial.co.nz> writes:
Jason> You can also use the fracdiff package for a fractionally differenced
Jason> arima model (max. likelihood estimation of parameters).
Fracdiff's covariance matrix always leave me puzzled. Consider this (slightly
modified) 'example(fracdiff)' session:
> ts.test <- fracdiff.sim( 5000, ar = .2, ma = -.4, d = .3)
 1 1866294289 525838217
> fd.obj <- fracdiff( ts.test$series, nar = length(ts.test$ar), nma = length(ts.test$ma))
unable to compute correlation matrix in: switch(temp$info, warning("warning in gamma function"), warning("singular Hessian"),
d ar1 ma1
d -2.926964e+11 -4251.568 4249.104
ar1 -4.251568e+03 0.000 0.000
ma1 4.249104e+03 0.000 0.000
Quoting from Venables and Ripley (S Programming, p 168): "no estimate is
complete without some estimate of its uncertainty".
That would leave fracdiff incomplete, or even broken, wouldn't it?
According to the latest figures, 43% of all statistics are totally worthless.
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