[R] R-help Time Series

[Uwe Ligges]

Prof Brian Ripley wrote:

> I think
> 
> 1) You have the units wrong: these appear to be the figures quoted for 
> KB of compressed files, and the compression is nothing like 1024:1.
> 
> 2) This is not `a series' unless you add a time base, e.g. via a call to 
> ts().
> 
> Surely subscribers are aware that they do not get many MB/day and that 
> extrapolation to that level is just speculation.


So let's be immensely unfair and do some speculation ...

Assuming 1000MB/month means a compressed archive file of (very) 
*roughly* 250MB.

Looking at the data with linear models,
    lm(sqrt(MB) ~ monthindex)
seems not to be the worst model (removing the first observation, perhaps).

So a very *rough* extrapolation shows us that we will get
1000MB/month around 2142.

I hope I'll get a better machine in 137 years to handle all the expected 
traffic. ;-)

Best,
Uwe


> On Sat, 26 Feb 2005 Ted.Harding at nessie.mcc.ac.uk wrote:
> 
>> Hi Folks,
>>
>> While I was browsing in the R-help archives yesterday,
>> I got curious about the time series of the sizes of
>> the monthly archives in MB.
>>
>> This turned out to have an unexpected feature or two,
>> which I leave to readers to explore for themselves.
>>
>> I'm now wondering at what point in time we might expect
>> to be receiving 1000MB/month (30+MB/day). It's not that
>> far away, it seems, but there are a couple of interesting
>> modelling questions behind it.
>>
>> In particular, I wonder by what mechanism the numbers
>> grow, according to the law which the data seem to indicate.
>>
>> Over to you.
>>
>> (just my 0.001 MB worth ... excluding headers)
>>
>> Ted
>>
>> To save you the trouble, the following sets up the series:
>>
>> MB<-c(55,19,19,18,19,17,35,27,47,
>> 55,32,50,55,41,49,50,28,53,42,81,54,
>> 99,60,84,80,76,75,78,61,83,97,141,122,
>> 96,144,173,153,226,202,131,165,183,175,168,187,
>> 240,272,262,195,236,244,285,249,326,345,392,268,
>> 455,320,418,453,468,422,447,400,323,516,478,327,
>> 450,487,535,658,573,606,659,543,655,722,677,567,
>> 519,703,886,793,719,816,812,730,698,831,969,736,
>> 855)
>>
>> April 1997 -- January 2005
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------------------------
>> E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <Ted.Harding at nessie.mcc.ac.uk>
>> Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 094 0861
>> Date: 26-Feb-05                                       Time: 10:31:05
>> ------------------------------ XFMail ------------------------------
>>
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