[R] Trend significant at p=0.05?

Bert Gunter bgunter.4567 at gmail.com
Tue Mar 15 00:49:17 CET 2016

This is not the place for a statistical discussion; it *is* the place
for R programming help.

However, you seem to be confused about confidence intervals and
significance, i.e. P values. You and others may wish to read about why
the "magic" P = .05 significance level is a **bad idea**, contributing
to bad science and irreproducible results, here:


(The original ASA statement is linked, and other relevant references
are provided).

So in other words, you and all others who believe that P values have
scientific value may wish to reconsider that belief.


Bert Gunter

"The trouble with having an open mind is that people keep coming along
and sticking things into it."
-- Opus (aka Berkeley Breathed in his "Bloom County" comic strip )

On Mon, Mar 14, 2016 at 8:49 AM, Chattopadhyay, Somsubhra
<sch298 at g.uky.edu> wrote:
> Hi,
> I am trying to calculate trends in my climatic time series, using the "Zyp"
> package. Initially, I tried with my daily data (I have daily rainfall data
> of 30 years) but then both the Zhang method and Yue-Pilon method yielded
> unrealistic results. The trend estimates were zero and so were the
> confidence limit bounds. But I guess, that is because the noise in the
> daily data. So, I converted my time series to annual data and now I see the
> attached output. I see that there is a positive trend, but my question is
> is this trend significant at 95% confidence interval? I suspect no because
> the confidence interval contains zero? Can anyone please confirm?
> I also attached the autocorrelation plot of the original time series.
> Thanks,
> Som
> --
> *Somsubhra Chattopadhyay*
> Graduate Research Assistant
> Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Department
> University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40546
> Email: schattop14 at uky.edu
> Cell: 9198026951
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