[R] function predict

Bert Gunter bgunter@4567 @end|ng |rom gm@||@com
Wed Apr 3 21:57:13 CEST 2019

This list has *no homework* policy. I would assume that the purpose of your
"project" is for you to learn how to deal with exactly the sorts of issues
you describe.

(But you might get lucky with a response anyway).

Bert Gunter

"The trouble with having an open mind is that people keep coming along and
sticking things into it."
-- Opus (aka Berkeley Breathed in his "Bloom County" comic strip )

On Wed, Apr 3, 2019 at 12:48 PM Michaela Berndl <michib567 using gmail.com> wrote:

> Dear Sir or Madam,
> we are statistic students at the Johannes Kepler University in Linz,
> Austria.
> In a project we had to analyse the time series influenza from the package
> tscount and make a prediction for one year. For the prediction we used the
> function predict from the package raster.
> Since our data ends not at the end of a year, but at week 23 in the year
> 2012, we need to predict till the 23th week of 2013.
> As identified in the Figure (boxplot of the original data) attached, in the
> first months of
> every year the recorded cases were always higher than in the rest of the
> year.
> The other figure shows the prediction with three models (the 3 colored
> lines) from week 23 in the year 2012 to week 22 in the year 2013 and the
> original data (the black line) for the same time. Due to the fact that the
> the peaks of the prediction lines are not even close to the original data,
> we are not sure whether the predict function is correct. We suspect that
> the predict function just works for a prediction of exactly one year, which
> starts at week 1 and ends at week 52.
> Kind regards,
> Doris Kuttner, Michaela Berndl
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