[R] Hyperbolic code in R studio ?

[Jeff Newmiller]

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On December 21, 2019 1:33:16 AM PST, Aissata Kagnassi <tatikagnassi using gmail.com> wrote:
>Good morning everyone,
>
>
>
>I don't want to bother you. I'm new at using R. :)
>
>1. I was wondering if someone could help me figure out why I can't
>generate
>the code to get a hyperbolic function.
>
>
>
>2. My second question is, I generated the code. I don't have any
>problem
>with other distributions but I still can't get the graphics displayed.
>
>
>
>Here are the instructions for my exercise and here is the code I used:
>
>
>
>**Instructions**
>
>Project: hereafter the series of financial returns will be refered to
>as yt
>and the series of fundamentals as xt. Here are the questions you need
>to
>raise and answer:
>
>Part 1: maximum likelihood estimation, student test and goodness of
>fit.
>
>1. Consider the following model:
>
>yt =μ+σεt, with εt a disturbance such that E[εt] = 0 and V[εt] = 1.
>
>*Estimate the parameters of the following distributions by maximum
>likelihood using the Yt:*
>
>• Gaussian distribution N(0,1)
>
>• Student-t distribution with parameter ν
>
>• A mixture of Gaussian distribution MN(φ, μ1, σ1, μ2, σ2)
>
>• A generalized hyperbolic distribution GH(λ, α, β, δ, μ).
>
>
>
>2. *Test the parameters for their significance using a Student test.
>Are
>all the parameters statistically significant?*
>
>
>
>**My code:**
>
>For the first three distributions, I answered well for questions one
>and
>two which are in italics. But I have a problem with the last one.
>
>library(readxl)
>
>Data <- read_excel("Data_project.xlsx", sheet = 2, skip = 5, col_names
>=
>FALSE)
>
>#y variable to explain, Nikkei 225 index
>
>y <- Data[16]
>
># x variable explanatory variable, Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar
>
>x <- Data[30]
>
>
>
>returns_y = diff(as.matrix(log(y)),1)
>
>returns_x = diff(as.matrix(log(x)),1)
>
>returnsy_std = scale(returns_y)
>
>
>
>#1. Estimate the parameters by maximum likelihood
>
>#Gaussian distribution N(0, 1)
>
>
>
>mu=0
>
>sigma=0.1
>
>para0 = c(mu,sigma)
>
>
>
>loglikG<-function(para,returns_y)
>
>{
>
>  mu = para[1]
>
>  sigma =  para[2]
>
>  print(para)
>
> logl=sum(log(dnorm((returns_y-mu)/sigma, 0, 1)/sigma))
>
>  return(-logl)
>
>}
>
>
>
>loglikG(para0,returns_y)
>
>fit <- optim(para0, loglikG, gr=NULL, returns_y,
>method="BFGS",hessian=T)
>
>
>
>paraopt<- fit[["par"]]
>
>
>
>Hessian = fit$hessian
>
>invh = solve(Hessian)
>
>
>
>t1= sqrt(invh[1,1])
>
>t2=sqrt(invh[2,2])
>
>testzmu = paraopt[1]/t1
>
>testzvar = paraopt[2]/t2
>
>print(testzmu)
>
>print(testzvar)
>
>
>
>
>
>#T-student
>
>
>
>para_t=c(0,0.012,5)
>
>
>
>loglikt <- function(para,returns_y){
>
>  mut=para[1]
>
>  sigmat=para[2]
>
>  nu=para[3]
>
> m=-sum(log(dt((returns_y-mut)/sigmat, df=nu)/sigmat))
>
>
>
>  return(m)
>
>}
>
>
>
>loglikt(para_t,returns_y)
>
>
>
>output_t= optim(para_t, loglikt, gr=NULL, returns_y, method="BFGS",
>hessian=TRUE)
>
>paraopt_t <- output_t[["par"]]
>
>
>
>Hessian_t = output_t$hessian
>
>invh_t = solve(Hessian_t)
>
>
>
>t1_t= sqrt(invh_t[1,1])
>
>t2_t=sqrt(invh_t[2,2])
>
>t3_t= sqrt(invh_t[3,3])
>
>testzmu_t = paraopt_t[1]/t1_t
>
>testzvar_t = paraopt_t[2]/t2_t
>
>testznu_t = paraopt_t[3]/t3_t
>
>print(testzmu_t)
>
>print(testzvar_t)
>
>print(testznu_t)
>
>
>
>#Mixture of Gaussian finding initial values
>
>library(LaplacesDemon)
>
>eps = 0.001
>
>tolerance = 0.95
>
>paraMG = c(-0.02,0.03,0.6,0.8,0.7)
>
>
>
>likehoodMG <- function(para,returnsy_std)
>
>{
>
>  muM12 = para[1:2]
>
>  sigmaM12 = para[3:4]
>
>  phi = para[5]
>
>  p = c(phi,1-phi)
>
> LM=sum(log(dnormm(returnsy_std,muM12,sigmaM12,p=p)))
>
>  mean_w = p[1]*muM12[1] + p[2]*muM12[2]
>
>  var_w = p[1]*sqrt(sigmaM12[1]) + p[2]*sqrt(sigmaM12[2])
>
> if((abs(mean_w)>tolerance) || (abs(var_w-1)>tolerance)){
>
>    return(NaN)
>
>  }
>
>  return(-LM)
>
>}
>
>
>
>likehoodMG(paraMG,returnsy_std)
>
>
>
>outputMG = optim(paraMG, likehoodMG, gr=NULL, returnsy_std, method =
>"L-BFGS-B", hessian=TRUE,
>
>                  lower = c(eps,eps,-Inf,-Inf,eps), upper =
>c(Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,1-eps))
>
>
>
>paraoptMG = outputMG[["par"]]
>
>
>
>#Mixture of Gaussian
>
>#(0.000345,0.023306)
>
>paraM
>=c(0.000345,0.023306,0.0253514,0.0010000,0.8715856,2.7857329,0.9659020)
>
>
>
>likehoodM <- function(para,returns_y)
>
>{
>
>  muM1 = para[1]
>
>  sigmaM = para[2]
>
>  muM12 = para[3:4]
>
>  sigmaM12 = para[5:6]
>
>  phi = para[7]
>
>  p = c(phi,1-phi)
>
> LM=sum(log(dnormm((returns_y-muM1)/sigmaM,muM12,sigmaM12,p=p)/sigmaM))
>
>  return(-LM)
>
>}
>
>
>
>likehoodM(paraM,returns_y)
>
>
>
>outputM = optim(paraM, likehoodM, gr=NULL, returns_y, method =
>"L-BFGS-B",
>hessian=TRUE,
>
>                lower = c(-Inf,eps,eps,eps,-Inf,-Inf,eps), upper =
>c(Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,1-eps))
>
>
>
>paraoptM = outputM[["par"]]
>
>
>
>HM = outputM[["hessian"]]
>
>invHM = solve(HM)
>
>
>
>tm1 = sqrt(invHM[1,1])
>
>tm2 = sqrt(invHM[2,2])
>
>tm3 = sqrt(invHM[3,3])
>
>tm4 = sqrt(invHM[4,4])
>
>tm5 = sqrt(invHM[5,5])
>
>tm6 = sqrt(invHM[6,6])
>
>tm7 = sqrt(invHM[7,7])
>
>
>
>testtmum = (paraoptM[1]-0)/tm1
>
>testtsigmam = paraoptM[2]/tm2
>
>testtmum1 = (paraoptM[3])/tm3
>
>testtmum2 = paraoptM[4]/tm4
>
>testtvarm1 = paraoptM[5]/tm5
>
>testtvarm2 = paraoptM[6]/tm6
>
>testtphi = paraoptM[7]/tm7
>
>print(testtmum)
>
>print(testtsigmam)
>
>print(testtmum1)
>
>print(testtmum2)
>
>print(testtvarm1)
>
>print(testtvarm2)
>
>print(testtphi)
>
>
>
>#A generalized hyperbolic distribution GH(??, ??, ??, ??, ?).
>
>library(readxl)
>
>Data <- read_excel("Data_project.xlsx", sheet = 2, skip = 5, col_names
>=
>FALSE)
>
>#y variable to explain, Nikkei 225 index
>
>y <- Data[16]
>
># x variable explanatory variable, Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar
>
>x <- Data[30]
>
>
>
>returns_y = diff(as.matrix(log(y)),1)
>
>returns_x = diff(as.matrix(log(x)),1)
>
>returnsy_std = scale(returns_y)
>
>
>
>
>
>#A generalized hyperbolic distribution GH(??, ??, ??, ??, ?).
>
>
>
>library(ghyp)
>
>
>
>para_gh= c(-0.00002,0.005,1,0,1,0.1,0.1) # mu,delta,alpha,beta,lambda
>
>
>
>loglikGH <- function(para,returns_y){
>
>  mugh=para[1]
>
>  sigmagh=para[2]
>
>  alpha=para[3]
>
>  beta = para[4]
>
>  delta=para[5]
>
>  chi=para[6]
>
>  lamda=para[7]
>
>  if(delta < abs(chi)){
>
>    return(10000)
>
>  }else{
>
>   return(-sum(log(dghyp(((returns_y-mugh)/sigmagh),object =
>ghyp(alpha,beta,delta,chi,lamda))/sigmagh)))
>
>  }
>
>}
>
>
>
>
>
>loglikGH(para_gh,returns_y)
>
>
>
>eps = 0.001
>
>
>
>outputGH= optim(para_gh, loglikGH, gr=NULL, returns_y, method =
>"L-BFGS-B",
>hessian=TRUE,
>
>                lower = c(-Inf,eps,eps,eps,-Inf,-Inf,eps), upper =
>c(Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf,Inf))
>
>
>
>paraoptGH = outputGH[["par"]]
>
>
>
>HGH = outputGH[["hessian"]]
>
>invHGM = solve(HGH)
>
>tm1_H = sqrt(invHGM[1,1])
>
>tm2_H = sqrt(invHGM[2,2])
>
>tm3_H = sqrt(invHGM[3,3])
>
>tm4_H = sqrt(invHGM[4,4])
>
>tm5_H = sqrt(invHGM[5,5])
>
>tm6_H = sqrt(invHGM[6,6])
>
>tm7_H = sqrt(invHGM[7,7])
>
>
>
>testtmuH = (paraoptGH[1]-0)/tm1_H
>
>testtsigmaH = paraoptGH[2]/tm2_H
>
>testtalpha = (paraoptGH[3])/tm3_H
>
>testtbetha = paraoptGH[4]/tm4_H
>
>testtdelta = paraoptGH[5]/tm5_H
>
>testtvchi = paraoptGH[6]/tm6_H
>
>testtlambda = paraoptGH[7]/tm7
>
>
>
>print(testtmuH)
>
>print(testtsigmaH)
>
>testtalpha
>
>testtbetha
>
>testtdelta
>
>testtvchi
>
>testtlambda
>
>	[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
>
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-- 
Sent from my phone. Please excuse my brevity.