[R] A general question about using Bayes' Theorem for calculating the probability of The End of Human Technological Civilisation

[Philip Rhoades]

People,

I have only a general statistics understanding and have never actually 
used Bayes' Theorem for any real-world problem.  My interest lies in 
developing some statistical approach for addressing the subject above 
and it seems to me that BT is what I should be looking at?  However, 
what I am specifically interested in is how such a work-up would be 
developed for a year-on-year situation eg:

I think it is likely that TEHTC could be triggered by a multi-gigaton 
release of methane from the Arctic Ocean and the Siberian Permafrost in 
any Northern Hemisphere Summer from now on (multiple physical and 
non-physical, human positive feedback loops would then kick in).

So, say my estimate (Bayesian Prior) is that for this coming (2019) NHS 
the chance of this triggering NOT occurring is x%.  The manipulation is 
then done to calculate the posterior for 2019 - but for every successive 
year (given the state of the world), isn't it true that the chance of a 
triggering NOT occurring in the NHS MUST go down? - ie it is just an 
argument about the scale of the change from year to year?

It seems to be that the posterior for one year becomes the prior for the 
next year?  Once the prior gets small enough people won't bother with 
the calculations anyway . .

Does anyone know of any existing work on this topic?  I want to write a 
plain-English doc about it but I want to have the stats clear in my head 
. .

Thanks,

Phil.
-- 
Philip Rhoades

PO Box 896
Cowra  NSW  2794
Australia
E-mail:  phil using pricom.com.au